{
"id": "force_geopolitical_fragmentation",
"name": "Geopolitical Fragmentation",
"category": "geopolitical",
"description": "Bloc formation, sanctions, strategic rivalry, and alignment pressure reshaping global trade and investment flows.",
"baselineStrength": 60,
"currentStrength": 70,
"trend": "strengthening",
"uncertainty": "medium",
"confidence": 0.7,
"affectedRegions": [
"us",
"cn",
"de",
"gb",
"jp",
"in"
],
"affectedIndicators": [
"tariff_index",
"geo_risk",
"trade_openness"
],
"affectedDrivers": [
"supply_risk",
"tariffs",
"geo_risk"
],
"timeHorizon": "long",
"consequenceIfIgnored": "Supply chain disruption, margin erosion 4-8%, regulatory compliance risks, potential loss of market access.",
"kind": "canonical"
}